While working for the think-tank, Stanford Research Institute (now SRI International), Duane Elgin co-authored the following report with Arnold Mitchell in 1976 for the Business Intelligence Program. Titled Voluntary Simplicity, this was the most popular report published to that date by the program and it stirred national interest in the theme of simplicity. This article is an updated version of that catalytic report and was published in the Summer, 1977 issue of the Co-Evolution Quarterly (which, in turn, was published by the Whole Earth Catalog).
I. Introduction
For the past several years the popular press has paid occasional attention to stories of people returning to the simple life — of people moving back to the country or making their own bread or building their own solar-heated home, and so on. Beneath this popular image of simple living we think there is a major social movement afoot which has the potential of touching the Unites States and other developed nations to their cores. This is the movement towards "voluntary simplicity" — a phrase we have borrowed from Richard Gregg who, in 1936, was describing a way of life marked by a new balance between inner and outer growth. Further, we think that voluntary simplicity may prove an increasingly powerful economic, social, and political force over the coming decade and beyond if large numbers of people of diverse backgrounds come to see it as a workable and purposeful response to many of the critical problems that we face. The emergence of voluntary simplicity could represent a major transformation of traditional American values. In this context, it may be a harbinger of multifold shifts, not only in values, but in consumption patterns, institutional operations, social movements, national policies, and so on.
Although there are many precursors and contributing streams to this social flow (environmentalism, consumerism, consciousness movement, etc.), there is little direct evidence to measure the magnitude of this way of life. This discussion then is not intended to be predictive or definitive; rather, as social conjecture and pattern recognition, it is inherently speculative and intended to provoke further thought and comment regarding voluntary simplicity.
In this paper, we start with a definition of voluntary simplicity (which we will sometimes refer to as VS) and look at the goals and values of people espousing it. We next discuss who the VS people are, their living patterns, and plausible trends in VS out to the year 2000. The paper then discusses the social and business implications of VS.
The essence of voluntary simplicity is living in a way what is outwardly simple and inwardly rich. This way of life embraces frugality of consumption, a strong sense of environmental urgency, a desire to return to living and working environments which are of a more human scale, and an intention to realize our higher human potential — both psychological and spiritual — in community with others. The driving forces behind voluntary simplicity range from acutely personal concerns to critical national problems. The appeal of simple living appears to be extraordinarily widespread, even gathering sympathy from among those who are not presently attempting to simplify their own life patterns. Voluntary simplicity is important because it may foreshadow a major transformation in the goals and values of the United States in the coming decades. Although a social movement still in its early stages, its practical and ethical positions seem well enough developed to permit useful analysis of this way of life.
Voluntary simplicity is not new. Nonetheless, the conditions and trends which appear to be driving its contemporary emergence do seem new in their magnitude and intensity. Historically, voluntary simplicity has its roots in the legendary frugality and self-reliance of the Puritans; in Thoreau's naturalistic vision at Walden Pond; in Emerson's spiritual and practical plea for "plain living and high thinking;" in the teachings and social philosophy of a number of spiritual leaders such as Jesus and Gandhi.
A uniquely modern aspect of voluntary simplicity is that this way of life seems to be driven by a sense of urgency and social responsibility that scarcely existed ten or fifteen years ago. This sense of urgency appears to derive from many serious societal problems, including: the prospects of a chronic energy shortage; growing terrorist activities at the same time that developed nations seem increasingly vulnerable to disruption; growing demands of the less developed nations for a more equitable share of the world's resources; the prospect that before we run out of resources on any absolute basis we may poison ourselves to death with environmental contaminants; a growing social malaise and purposelessness which causes us to drift in our social evolution; and so on. These are but a few of the more modern elements which converge to make voluntary simplicity a seemingly rational response to a pressing situation.
Values Central To Voluntary Simplicity
Voluntary simplicity is a name which denotes a social movement of great diversity and richness. Not surprisingly, there are many values congruent with voluntary simplicity — that radiate out, so to speak, touching global as well as close-to-home issues, idealistic as well as practical matters, and worldly along with personal concerns. Yet, there seems to be an underlying coherence to the rich diversity of expression of this way of life. Consequently, we have selected a skeletal list of those values, which seem to us to lie at the heart of this emerging way of life. These five values are the following:
- Material Simplicity
- Human Scale
- Self-Determination
- Ecological Awareness
- Personal Growth
These are considered in detail below.
1. Material Simplicity — Simplification of the material aspects of life is one of the core values of voluntary simplicity. The American Friends Service Committee, long a leader in exploring a way of life of creative simplicity, defines simple living as a "non-consumerist life-style based upon being and becoming, not having." The Friends have identified four consumption criteria which evoke the essence of voluntary material simplicity:
- Does what I own or buy promote activity, self-reliance, and involvement, or does it induce passivity and dependence?
- Are my consumption patters basically satisfying, or do I buy much that serves no real need?
- How tied are my present job and lifestyle to installment payments, maintenance and repair costs, and the expectations of others?
- Do I consider the impact of my consumption patterns on other people and on the earth?
These consumption criteria imply an intention to "reduce frills and luxuries in our present lifestyle but at the same time emphasize the beauty and joy of living." They are designed to (1) help people lead lives of creative simplicity, freed from excessive attachment to material goods; (2) aid the nation release more of its wealth to share with those who presently do not have even the basic necessities of life; (3) help individuals become more self-sufficient and less dependent upon large, complex institutions, whether public or private; and (4) restore to life a sense of proportion and balance between the material and non-material aspects of living.
Although living simply implies consuming quantitatively less (particularly items that are energy inefficient, nonbiodegradable, nonessential luxuries, etc.), this does not mean that the overall cost of consumption will go down drastically. Living simply need not be equated with living cheaply. The hand crafted, durable, esthetically enduring products that appeal to frugal consumers are oftentimes purchased at a considerable premium over mass-produced items. Therefore, although the quantity of consumption may decrease and the environmental costs of consumption may be considerably moderated, the overall cost of consumption may remain relatively high since our economy is not oriented to producing the kinds of products which fit these criteria. Material simplicity will thus likely be manifest in consumption styles that are less ascetic (of strictly enforced austerity) and more aesthetic (where each person will consider whether his or her level and pattern of consumption fits, with grace and integrity, into the practical art of daily living). In this view, material possessions are supportive of rather than central to, the process of human growth. Since the ways of expressing that growth are diverse, it seems likely that the degree and nature of material simplification will be a matter for each individual to settle largely for him or herself.
2. Human Scale — A preference for human-sized living and working environments is a central feature of the values constellation embraced by voluntary simplicity. Adherents to voluntary simplicity tend to equate the gigantic scale of institutions and living environments with anonymity, incomprehensibility, and artificiality.
In contrast, as E.F. Schumacher has so powerfully stated, "Small is Beautiful." The smallness theme touches on many facets of living. It implies that living and working environments as well as supportive institutions (which have grown to enormous levels of scale and complexity) should, whenever possible, be decentralized into more comprehensible and manageable entities. This further implies that people's endeavors should be of such dimensions that each knows what he/she contributes to the whole and, hence, has a sense of shared rewards and shared responsibility. Reduction of scale is seen as a means of getting back to basics by restoring to life a more human sense of proportion and perspective.
3. Self-Determination — Voluntary simplicity embraces an intention to be more self-determining and less dependent upon large, complex institutions whether in the private sector (the economy) or public sector (the political processes). Self-determination manifests itself in consumption as a desire to assume greater control over one's personal destiny and not lead a life so tied to "installment payments, maintenance costs and the expectations of others." To counterbalance the trend towards increasing material dependency a person may seek to become more materially self-sufficient — to grow his own, to make his own, to do without, and to exercise self-discipline in his pattern and level of consumption so that the degree of dependency (both physical and psychological) is reduced.
Self-determination shows up in production as a counterbalancing force to combat excessive division of labor. Therefore, instead of embracing specialization the adherent to voluntary simplicity may seek greater work integration and synthesis so that the relationship between his work and its contribution to the whole is more evident.
In the public sector, the drive for greater self-determination is revealed by a growing distrust of and sense of alienation from large and complex social bureaucracies. The individual — particularly the adherent to voluntary simplicity — seems to want to take charge of his life more fully and to manage his own affairs without the undue or unnecessary intrusion of a remote bureaucracy. This dimension of voluntary simplicity may explain some of the unusual political coalitions that seem to be emerging between the right and left — where neither support the further intrusion of big institutions into their lives, but rather wish for greater local self-determination and grass roots political action. This aversion to being controlled by increasingly distant bureaucracies is reminiscent of the stubborn independence out of which was born the American Revolution.
4. Ecological Awareness — A sense of ecological awareness which acknowledges the interconnectedness and interdependence of people and resources is central to voluntary simplicity. There emerges from this awareness a number of themes that are hallmarks of this way of life. For example, ecological awareness prompts recognition that our earth is indeed limited, with all that implies for conservation of physical resources, reduction of environmental pollution, and maintenance of the beauty and integrity of the natural environment. Importantly, this awareness often seems to extend beyond a concern for purely physical resources to include other human beings as well. The philosophy of "welfare" espoused by Gandhi (sarvodaya — not wanting what the least of the inhabitants of this earth cannot have) seems to bring, in substantial part, from this intimate sense of felt connection with those who are less fortunate than we. From this awareness there may arise a sense of compassion and caring that extends beyond the boundaries of the nation-state to include all of humankind. In acknowledging the underlying unity of the human race, the growth of an ecological awareness expands the vision of voluntary simplicity outward and brings with it a strong sense of social responsibility and worldly involvement to what otherwise could be a relatively isolated and self-centered way of life.
Some of the more concrete expressions of this awareness might include: a willingness to share resources with those who are disadvantaged; a sense of global citizenship with commensurate adjustments in lifestyle, social vision, and political commitments; a preference for living where there is ready access to nature; and a desire to foster human and institutional diversity at a grass roots level.
5. Personal Growth — For many persons taking up a materially simple way of life, the primary reason is to clear away external clutter so as to be freer to explore the "inner life." The themes of material simplicity, self-sufficiency, a more human scale to living and working, and an ecological awareness are, in a way, devices to sweep away impediments to inner growth. The goal, then, is to free oneself of the overwhelming externals so as to provide the space in which to grow — both psychologically and spiritually. Simone de Beauvoir succinctly stated the rationale for this desire for self-realization when she said: "Life is occupied in both perpetuating itself and in surpassing itself; if all it does is maintain itself, then living is only not dying." From the vantage point of many adherents to voluntary simplicity, contemporary American society is primarily occupied in perpetuating itself — and living has become "only not dying." As the workability and meaning of traditional values and goals becomes less compelling, a small but rapidly growing number of Americans have become intensively engaged in the attempt to surpass themselves. Although personal growth often includes a distinctly spiritual aspect, involvement with the inner/nonmaterial dimension of life should not be associated with any particular philosophy or religion — its scope embraces activities ranging from biofeedback, humanistic psychology, transpersonal psychology, Eastern philosophy, fundamentalist Christianity, and more.
A concern for the subjective aspect of experience and for the quality of human relationships has been reflected in a steady current of evolving social trends over the past 15 years. Developments have included the emergence and proliferation of the "human potential movement;" the emergence of "transpersonal psychology" coupled with a rapid increase of interest and involvement in many Eastern meditative traditions; the growth of feminism; a cultural fascination with psychic phenomena; developments in brain research that confirm a biological basis for both the rational and the intuitive side to human nature; a growing interest in sports as both a physical and spiritual process (e.g., the "inner game" of tennis); and more.
Without the compelling goal of exploring inner potentials, it seems unlikely that there will be sufficient motivation to adopt voluntarily a way of life of material simplicity. Without greater simplicity, it seems unlikely that we will be able to cope successfully with the problems engendered, for example, by scarcity. Finally, unless inner learning expands, it seems unlikely there will develop the degree of internal maturation necessary for the human species to act as wise trustees of conscious evolution on this earth.
Still, this analysis does not penetrate to the roots of the connection between personal growth and voluntary simplicity. To explain adequately, we must look to a deeper underlying vision. It is an old vision — perhaps as old as civilized man — but an enduring one that seems destined to be rediscovered again and again. The nature of this vision is succinctly summed up by the eminent historian, Arnold Toynbee:
These religious founders [Jesus, Buddha, Lao Tse, St. Francis of Assisi] disagreed with each other in their pictures of what is the nature of the universe, the nature of spiritual life, the nature of ultimate spiritual reality. But they all agreed in their ethical precepts. They all agreed that the pursuit of material wealth is a wrong aim. We should aim only at the minimum wealth needed to maintain life; and our main aim should be spiritual. They all said with one voice that if we made material wealth our paramount aim, this would lead to disaster. They all spoke in favor of unselfishness and of love for other people as the key to happiness and to success in human affairs.
The foregoing five themes do not exhaust the range of basic values that may emerge as hallmarks of the way of life termed voluntary simplicity. Moreover, these values will surely be held to differing degrees in differing combinations by different people. Nonetheless, these values possess an underlying coherence which suggests that they have not arisen randomly but rather as a strongly reinforcing set or pattern. Just a few moments of reflection reveals how powerfully reinforcing these values are: for example, personal growth may foster an ecological awareness which may prompt greater material simplicity and thereby allow greater opportunity for living and working at a smaller, more human scale which, in turn, may allow greater opportunity for local self-determination. No one value theme alone could create the vitality and coherence that emerges from the synergistic interaction of these values. To the extent that these values provide people with a realistic basis for both maintaining and surpassing themselves, they then constitute a practical "world view" — a coherent pattern of perception, belief, and behavior which could provide an important bridge between the traditional industrial world view and an uncertain and difficult social future.
What Voluntary Simplicity Is Not
We have been trying to define what voluntary simplicity is. We can also get a sense of voluntary simplicity by suggesting what it is not.
- Voluntary simplicity should not be equated with a back-to-nature movement. Although an historic shift in net population migration towards small towns and rural places is underway, the large majority of people continue to reside in urban environments. Voluntary simplicity seems perhaps as compelling for this urban majority as it does for the rural minority. An urban existence need not be incompatible with voluntary simplicity; indeed, many of the experiments with appropriate technology, intensive gardening, and such have been conducted in urban contexts.
- Although voluntary simplicity surely traces some of its contemporary heritage and vitality to the counterculture movement of the 1960s, its present constituency is certainly not limited to that group. Many of its adherents are of an age and background far removed from the proponents of the so-called "new values" a decade ago.
- Voluntary simplicity should not be equated with living in poverty. Indeed, impoverishment is in many ways the opposite of simple living in that poverty tends to make life a struggle to maintain oneself and provides little opportunity to surpass oneself.
- Voluntary simplicity is not a social panacea. It does imply social evolution towards what its adherents view as the minimal requirements for long term global survival but that does not itself cure the problems we confront; rather, voluntary simplicity may provide a basis from which societal responses with some long term hope for success can emerge.
- It is not a movement with heart but without the skills necessary to bring it to fruition. Among those who adhere to many of the tenets of voluntary simplicity are, in our estimation, some of the most creative and capable intellects, artists, and humanistic capitalists in the United States. Voluntary simplicity draws its ranks substantially from the well-educated, and, as such, has access to a rich pool of talent.
- Voluntary simplicity is not a social movement confined to the United States. Virtually all of the developed Western nations seem to be moving in a somewhat similar direction (although its expression may be altered by the cultural context and social experience). Many European nations, with more limited land and resources, have been learning how to cope with scarcity for far longer than the United States has. And there is evidence that other nations may be opting for voluntary simplicity rather than endure the stress of striving for affluence. For example, a recent poll in Norway found that "74 percent of the total sample claimed they would prefer a simple life with no more than essentials (these were, however, not defined) to a high income and many material benefits if these have to be obtained through increased stress."
- Voluntary simplicity is not a fad. Its roots reach far too deeply into the needs and ideals of people everywhere to be regarded as a transitory response to a passing societal condition.
The Push Toward Voluntary Simplicity
We have suggested that there is a strong pull towards voluntary simplicity. It seems to offer a practical, workable, and meaningful way of life for a small but significant segment of the population. Yet, despite the strength of this pull to voluntary simplicity, there is little reason to think that this way of life will grow to embrace substantial proportions of the population unless the pull is matched by substantial pushes. These twin elements of push and pull need to be considered if we are to assess the likelihood that voluntary simplicity will gather social momentum in the future. We turn, then, to consideration of whether society problems will push us in a direction similar to that exerted by the pull toward voluntary simplicity.
The range and diversity of contemporary societal problems is enormous. Space does not allow more than a cursory glance at some of the more prominent problems which may, in their eventual resolution, push us towards a simple way of life. These problems include:
- The prospect of running out of cheaply available, critical, industrial raw materials
- The prospect of chronic energy shortages and a difficult transition to a much more energy-efficient economy
- The growing threat that before we run out of material resources in any absolute sense we will pollute ourselves to death with the intrusion of many thousands of hazardous substances into our living environments and food chains
- Rising material demands of the third and fourth world, coupled with climatic changes which may induce periodic but massive famine in certain areas, coupled with the growing threat of terrorism (conventional, nuclear, biological), coupled with the growing vulnerability of the highly complex and interdependent technology (e.g., communications, energy, and transportation systems) common to developed nations
- The changing balance of global power, given rapid nuclear proliferation
- The poverty of abundance — growing dissatisfaction with the output of our industrial society as the sole or even primary reward and reason for our individual existences
- Challenge to the legitimacy of leaders in nearly all major institutions — both public and private
- Apparent loss of social purpose and direction coupled with rising levels of individual alienation
- Chronic and pervasive fiscal crises of many of our largest cities, coupled with an historic and unexpected turnaround in migration patterns (the net flow is now to small towns and rural areas)
- Decline in the expected number of meaningful work roles, coupled with growing levels of automation, coupled with chronic underemployment and unemployment
- The prospect that we have created social bureaucracies (at the federal, state, and local levels) of such extreme levels of scale, complexity, and interdependence that they now exceed our capacity to comprehend and, therefore, to manage them; coupled with growing protests that we are becoming an excessively overregulated society, coupled with growing demands upon government at all levels
- Growing demands that domestic economic inequities be moderated, coupled with the prospect of a little- or no-growth economy in the foreseeable future, yielding the spectre of intense competition for a fixed or slowly growing pie
Resolution of problems such as these will likely push our society in a direction which is more ecologically conscious, more frugal in its consumption, more globally oriented, more decentralized, more allowing of local self-determination, and so on. To some considerable extent, it appears that resolution of these increasingly serious problems will push in a direction at least similar to that implied by the pull toward voluntary simplicity.
We think there are at least two very distinct kinds of people fully living the VS way of life. The first, and less numerous of the two, consists of a heterogeneous group of families and individuals who have voluntarily taken up simple living following years or decades of active involvement in the mainstream. The motivations of such people tend to be highly private and specific — desire to escape the "rat race," personal disillusionment, boredom with the job, the desire to live a less plastic life, and so on. Such changes in lifestyle make good copy and hence this type of phenomenon gets much publicity. In terms of numbers, this group does not appear very significant. However, as a model for others to emulate, this group may be profoundly important.
The other type tends to be younger, more motivated by philosophical concerns, more activistic, and more given to promoting the VS view. Since no survey has yet been made explicitly for the purpose of defining the demographics of adherents to VS, we are forced to surmise their characteristics based on the attributes of related groups (such as environmentalists, consumerists, members of "human potential" movements, those operating Briarpatch businesses, etc.) on which some data are available. Based on this kind of inferential evidence, the second group of adherents to voluntary simplicity appears to be:
- Predominantly young, the large majority being in their 20s or 30s
- Evenly divided among the sexes
- Preponderantly single, although many young families are included
- Almost exclusively white
- From middle or upper class backgrounds
- Exceptionally well educated
- Bimodal in income, over a fourth (mostly students) having annual incomes under $5,000 and another fourth having incomes over $15,000
- Independent politically — uncomfortable with the standard labels
- Largely urban residents, although many would like to live in small town or rural environments
Number & Degrees Of Voluntary Simplicity
We have found it useful to think in terms of four distinct categories of voluntary simplicity:
1. Full Voluntary Simplicity — Our best guess is that only 4 to 5 million adults (3% of the adult population) fully and wholeheartedly live a life of voluntary simplicity. These people constitute the active, leading edge of the trend toward simple living and are found in all parts of the country. If we had to draw a caricature of the life-activities characteristic of this group it would include: organize gardening, recycling, natural foods, simple clothing, biking to work, backpacking on vacations, family oriented, engaging in meditation or other growth processes.
2. Partial Voluntary Simplicity — A second group we call "partial" adherents to voluntary simplicity. This group is probably about twice as large as the first (with some 8 to 10 million adults). These persons adhere to and act on some, but not all, of the basic tenets of voluntary simplicity. These persons are scattered throughout the adult population — probably a greater proportion of them are middle age and middle class, but they are still predominantly white and predominantly urban.
3. Sympathizers Toward Voluntary Simplicity — Polls cited later suggest that a large fraction of the total adult population — almost surely exceeding one-third and perhaps as large as one-half — sympathizes with many values associated with voluntary simplicity but, for one reason or another, this group does not presently act on this sympathy. We call these people sympathizers toward voluntary simplicity.
4. Indifferent, Unaware, Or Opposed To Voluntary Simplicity — Finally, we estimate that at least half of the population falls into the category of being indifferent to, unaware of, or opposed to voluntary simplicity. This group draws its numbers from both ends of the income spectrum. First there are those who are involuntarily simple — that is, who live in poverty and have not yet experienced the life of abundance. These people oppose VS because they are unwilling to forego the opportunity to strike it rich. Second, at the other income extreme, there are those who are strongly achievement oriented and see simple living as a threat to their style of life.
It appears that, of these four categories, the sympathizers will play a pivotal role. Their numbers are so large that they constitute a major reservoir of dormant support for voluntary simplicity. Depending upon the pushes and pulls that tug at our society as we make our way into the future, this way of life could have enormous growth potential, as we shall see later.
On what basis do we offer the foregoing estimates of numbers of adults in the various categories of voluntary simplicity? The estimates can be inferred by observing the ebbs and flows of related movements ranging from consumerism to concern with consciousness research. However, the dimensions of voluntary simplicity are most clearly indicated in a variety of opinion studies.
In a poll published in May 1976, the Roper organization found that 51% of Americans believe the nation "must cut way back" on production and consumption to conserve resources and keep the economy strong. Only 45% felt that traditional lifestyles can continue unchanged.
Louis Harris in late 1975 reported the following results from his polls. To reduce consumption of physical goods and products:
- 92% of Americans are willing to eliminate annual model changes in automobiles
- 91% are willing to forego meat for one day a week
- 90% are willing to do away with annual fashion changes in clothing
- 82% are willing to reduce the amount of advertising
- 73% are willing to wear old clothes (even if they shine) until they wear out
- 73% are willing to prohibit the building of large houses with extra rooms that are seldom used
- 57% are willing to see a national policy that would make it much cheaper to live in multiple-unit apartments than in single family homes
Harris concludes: "When the alternative is posed between changing our lifestyle to have less consumption of physical goods, on one hand, and enduring the risks of continuing inflation and unemployment on the other, by 77% to 8% the American people opt for a change in lifestyle."
A very different kind of study was reported in the final 1975 issue of the Harvard Business Review. Asked to compare "Ideology I" (the traditional American way prizing most the values of rugged individualism, private property, and free competition in an open marketplace) with "Ideology II" (communalism in which the rights and duties of the individual are determined by the needs of the common good), U.S. readers preferred I to II by 70% to 29%. More important for this discussion, 36% thought Ideology II to be dominant today, 38% thought it more effective in solving problems in the future, and 73% thought it would dominate in the U.S. by 1985.
Concern with the inner life also has a very broad base of support. For example, the firm of Yankelovoch, Skelly, and White finds that some 80% of the population is interested in developing better self-understanding through the inner search for meaning. A 1975 poll conducted by the National Opinion Research Corporation found that over 40% of American adults have undergone what they regard as a genuinely "mystical" experience. In 1974 Roper found that 53% of Americans believe in the existence of ESP — a belief, incidentally, that correlates strongly with education and income. A 1976 Gallup poll found that 12% of the American people are "involved in" or "practice" some mystical discipline.
Another indicator of support for VS is the fact that books like Small is Beautiful, The Whole Earth Catalog, and Limits to Growth each have sold millions of copies.
Finally, one might point to the remarkable acceptance of California Governor Edmund Brown, Jr.'s personal and political posture with regard to frugality and ecology. Further, it seems significant that both President Carter and ex-President Ford have gone on record as supporters of the view that more is not necessarily better.
The foregoing data prove nothing, but as a set or pattern of evidence they do seem suggestive. They seem to indicate (1) a receptivity on the part of Americans to a change in lifestyle, (2) sympathy for values and attitudes congruent with voluntary simplicity, and (3) a wide base of interest in the inner dimension of life.
Prospects For Growth
A crucial question concerns the outlook for the growth of voluntary simplicity as a way of life. We estimate that the maximum plausible growth of VS would yield the following figures:
| 1977 | 1987 | 2000 | |
| Full VS | 5 | 25 | 60 |
| Partial VS | 10 | 35 | 60 |
| Sympathizers | 60 | 50 | 25 |
| Indifferent or Opposed | 75 | 60 | 55 |
These figures suggest that possibly 10 million adults follow VS tenets today (if we assume 5 million "full VS" plus 50% of "partial VS"). Their combined numbers could exceed 40 million by 1987 and 90 million by the year 2000. This is, for a basic sociological phenomenon, an extraordinary rate of growth. Even so, less than a third of the adult population would be fully living this way of life 23 years from now.
To attain the degree of growth shown in the table, we think several conditions would have to be present. First, the push pressures described earlier would have to continue to mount rather than decline. Efforts to overcome them would have largely to fail, for whatever reasons. At the same time, however, the nation would have to avoid a truly severe economic depression or else involuntary simplicity (i.e., poverty) would largely replace voluntary simplicity.
Second, VS would have to prove a rewarding and nourishing way of life to many millions of people who have little experience with the day-to-day realities of living simply. Attempts to live simply are sometimes abandoned because it doesn't yield the expected inner rewards, because it is too demanding or too lonely, or because changed family circumstances (e.g., having children) require a return to a less extreme lifestyle. Some observers feel that VS makes such large demands on both inner and external resources of people and is at such profound odds with traditional American achievement and material values that only a relative few will be able to live the simple life happily. Hence, they argue, VS will not prove a viable national solution to the problem it addresses. Other observers have no such qualms.
Third — and perhaps most important — a mass production, high-productivity sector of the economy will have to coexist with the VS sector in order to maintain standards of living; otherwise, the aggregate decline in living standards could be so great as to invite social and economic revolution. There appear to be no mechanical or philosophic reasons why frugality and simplicity cannot coexist with high technology and the profit motive. However, it is not clear whether or not antagonisms between the two life ways would permit the minimal — but essential — levels of cooperation.
Even if voluntary simplicity does expand in the coming quarter century to the degree indicated, it is not likely to emerge in the smooth fashion suggested by the numbers in the table. Rather, it will develop (to whatever extent) with jumps and drops and plateaus, reflecting a variety of specific events, perceptual insights, charismatic leaders, and many types of regulatory and legislative policies. It is also possible that voluntary simplicity will progress unobtrusively in the form of countless millions of small, unannounced decisions made so inconspicuously that almost no one is aware of the total effect until, suddenly, it is clear that a major values transformation has occurred.
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